Climate sciences

  • Article |

    Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.

    • Julius Garbe
    • , Torsten Albrecht
    •  & Ricarda Winkelmann
  • Article |

    A compilation of proxy data are used with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to constrain cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum, producing estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity that agree well with the current consensus range.

    • Jessica E. Tierney
    • , Jiang Zhu
    •  & Christopher J. Poulsen
  • Article |

    Observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 is reconciled with estimates based on the contributing processes, revealing budget closure within uncertainties and showing ice-mass loss from glaciers as a dominant contributor.

    • Thomas Frederikse
    • , Felix Landerer
    •  & Yun-Hao Wu
  • Article |

    Ocean heatwaves displace surface isotherms by tens to thousands of kilometres—comparable to shifts associated with long-term warming trends—potentially driving rapid redistributions of marine species.

    • Michael G. Jacox
    • , Michael A. Alexander
    •  & James D. Scott
  • Article |

    Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.

    • D. M. Smith
    • , A. A. Scaife
    •  & L. Zhang
  • Article |

    A detailed assessment of the techno-economic potential of enhanced rock weathering on croplands identifies national CO2 removal potentials, costs and engineering challenges if it were to be scaled up to help meet ambitious global CO2 removal targets.

    • David J. Beerling
    • , Euripides P. Kantzas
    •  & Steven A. Banwart
  • Article |

    Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.

    • Jens Terhaar
    • , Lester Kwiatkowski
    •  & Laurent Bopp
  • Article |

    Applying a bias correction to a state-of-the-art dataset covering non-alpine regions of the Northern Hemisphere and to three other datasets yields a more constrained quantification of snow mass in March from 1980 to 2018.

    • Jouni Pulliainen
    • , Kari Luojus
    •  & Johannes Norberg
  • Article |

    Over the past 18,000 years, the residence time and amount of soil carbon stored in the Ganges–Brahmaputra basin have been controlled by the intensity of Indian Summer Monsoon rainfall, with greater carbon destabilization during wetter, warmer conditions.

    • Christopher J. Hein
    • , Muhammed Usman
    •  & Valier V. Galy
  • Article |

    Coral records indicate that the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole over the last millennium is strongly coupled to variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and that recent extremes are unusual but not unprecedented.

    • Nerilie J. Abram
    • , Nicky M. Wright
    •  & David Heslop
  • Article |

    Isotopic evidence from ice cores indicates that preindustrial-era geological methane emissions were lower than previously thought, suggesting that present-day emissions of methane from fossil fuels are underestimated.

    • Benjamin Hmiel
    • , V. V. Petrenko
    •  & E. Dlugokencky
  • Article |

    An analysis based on Landsat imagery shows that the extent of river ice has declined extensively over past decades and that this trend will continue under future global warming.

    • Xiao Yang
    • , Tamlin M. Pavelsky
    •  & George H. Allen
  • Article |

    Three techniques for estimating mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet produce comparable results for the period 1992–2018 that approach the trajectory of the highest rates of sea-level rise projected by the IPCC.

    • Andrew Shepherd
    • , Erik Ivins
    •  & Jan Wuite
  • Article |

    The worldwide distribution and water supply of water towers (snowy or glacierized mountain ranges) is indexed, showing that the most important water towers are also the most vulnerable to socio-economic and climate-change stresses, with huge potential negative impacts on populations downstream.

    • W. W. Immerzeel
    • , A. F. Lutz
    •  & J. E. M. Baillie
  • Article |

    Since the 1980s, rapid warming of the Indo-Pacific warm pool has altered global rainfall pattern by changing the residence time of the Madden–Julian Oscillation, decreasing it by 3–4 days over the Indian Ocean and increasing it over the Indo-Pacific by 5–6 days.

    • M. K. Roxy
    • , Panini Dasgupta
    •  & Daehyun Kim
  • Article |

    Emission of methane from ‘point sources’—small surface features or infrastructure components—is monitored with an airborne spectrometer, identifying possible targets for mitigation efforts.

    • Riley M. Duren
    • , Andrew K. Thorpe
    •  & Charles E. Miller
  • Article |

    Analysis of two-million-year-old ice from Antarctica provides a direct comparison of atmospheric gas levels before and after the shift from glacial cycles of 100 thousand years to 40-thousand-year cycles around one million years ago.

    • Yuzhen Yan
    • , Michael L. Bender
    •  & John A. Higgins
  • Article |

    Analyses of mitochondrial genomes from populations in southern Africa provide evidence of a southern African origin of anatomically modern humans and a sustained occupation of the homeland before the first migrations of people appear to be driven by regional climate shifts.

    • Eva K. F. Chan
    • , Axel Timmermann
    •  & Vanessa M. Hayes
  • Letter |

    After the Cretaceous/Palaeogene mass extinction event, nannoplankton communities exhibited volatility for 1.8 million years before a more stable community emerged, coinciding with restoration of the carbon cycle and a fully functioning biological pump between the surface and deep sea.

    • Sarah A. Alvarez
    • , Samantha J. Gibbs
    •  & Andy Ridgwell
  • Article |

    Fundamental value judgments about acceptable maximum levels of climate change and future reliance on controversial technologies can be made explicitly in climate scenarios, thereby addressing the intergenerational bias present in the scenario literature.

    • Joeri Rogelj
    • , Daniel Huppmann
    •  & Malte Meinshausen
  • Letter |

    Observations and regional climate models show that the increasing coverage of ice slabs on the Greenland ice sheet could lead to a global sea-level rise of up to 74 millimetres by 2100.

    • M. MacFerrin
    • , H. Machguth
    •  & W. Abdalati
  • Letter |

    A statistical forecast model using a deep-learning approach produces useful forecasts of El Niño/Southern Oscillation events with lead times of up to one and a half years.

    • Yoo-Geun Ham
    • , Jeong-Hwan Kim
    •  & Jing-Jia Luo
  • Letter |

    Using phreatic overgrowths on speleothems, sea level during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, which was about two to three degrees Celsius warmer than the pre-industrial period, is shown to have been about 16 metres higher than today.

    • Oana A. Dumitru
    • , Jacqueline Austermann
    •  & Bogdan P. Onac