Climate change

  • Article |

    Through an idealized set of simulations, with a model that incorporates key physics, research reveals dramatic swings between massive rainfall events and extended dry periods in hothouse climates.

    • Jacob T. Seeley
    •  & Robin D. Wordsworth
  • Article |

    Preliminary modelling of airborne microplastics suggests that they may be exerting a minor cooling influence on the present-day atmosphere, and continued production could have increasing effects on the climate system in future.

    • Laura E. Revell
    • , Peter Kuma
    •  & Sally Gaw
  • Article |

    The amount of carbon dioxide released by the Australian wildfires of 2019–2020 is uncertain, but is estimated here using satellite observations of carbon monoxide to be more than twice the amount suggested by fire inventories.

    • Ivar R. van der Velde
    • , Guido R. van der Werf
    •  & Ilse Aben
  • Article |

    Modelling suggests that the Montreal Protocol may be mitigating climate change by protecting the land carbon sink, as well as by protecting the ozone layer and reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

    • Paul J. Young
    • , Anna B. Harper
    •  & Rolando R. Garcia
  • Article |

    To enable net-negative CO2 emissions, the repayment of previously accrued carbon debt by establishing the responsibility for the net removal of CO2 by carbon-emitting parties through carbon removal obligations is necessary.

    • Johannes Bednar
    • , Michael Obersteiner
    •  & Jim W. Hall
  • Article |

    A revised date for the Laacher See eruption using measurements of subfossil trees shifts the chronology of European varved lakes relative to the Greenland ice core record, synchronizing the onset of the Younger Dryas across the North Atlantic–European sector.

    • Frederick Reinig
    • , Lukas Wacker
    •  & Ulf Büntgen
  • Article |

    Large forest fires in Alaska and the Northwest Territories can ‘overwinter’ and then reignite in the following fire season, contributing up to one-third of the burned area in individual years.

    • Rebecca C. Scholten
    • , Randi Jandt
    •  & Sander Veraverbeke
  • Article |

    Analysis of satellite stereo imagery uncovers two decades of mass change for all of Earth’s glaciers, revealing accelerated glacier shrinkage and regionally contrasting changes consistent with decadal climate variability.

    • Romain Hugonnet
    • , Robert McNabb
    •  & Andreas Kääb
  • Review Article |

    Ongoing global warming is likely to cause tipping point thresholds to be passed, but an abrupt system change can still be avoided if the warming is reversed quickly relative to the timescale of the tipping element.

    • Paul D. L. Ritchie
    • , Joseph J. Clarke
    •  & Chris Huntingford
  • Review Article |

    This Review proposes an interdisciplinary framework for researching climate–society interactions that focuses on the mechanisms through which climate change has influenced societies, and the uncertainties of discerning this influence across different spatiotemporal scales.

    • Dagomar Degroot
    • , Kevin Anchukaitis
    •  & Natale Zappia
  • Article |

    A synthesis of elevated carbon dioxide experiments reveals that when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by elevated carbon dioxide levels, soil carbon storage declines, and where biomass is weakly stimulated, soil carbon accumulates.

    • C. Terrer
    • , R. P. Phillips
    •  & R. B. Jackson
  • Article |

    Modelling and remote sensing show that by the end of the twenty-first century, lake heatwaves will be several degrees Celsius warmer and some will be months longer, with potentially major adverse consequences for lake ecosystems.

    • R. Iestyn Woolway
    • , Eleanor Jennings
    •  & Stephen C. Maberly
  • Article |

    North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes are weakening more slowly than in the past because warming oceans are increasing the moisture carried by the storm until it hits land, and this storm moisture acts as an ongoing heat source post-landfall.

    • Lin Li
    •  & Pinaki Chakraborty
  • Article |

    Multicriteria optimization identifies global priority areas for ecosystem restoration and estimates their benefits for biodiversity and climate, providing cost–benefit analyses that highlight the importance of optimizing spatial planning and incorporating several biomes in restoration strategies.

    • Bernardo B. N. Strassburg
    • , Alvaro Iribarrem
    •  & Piero Visconti
  • Article |

    Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.

    • Julius Garbe
    • , Torsten Albrecht
    •  & Ricarda Winkelmann
  • Article |

    A compilation of proxy data are used with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to constrain cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum, producing estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity that agree well with the current consensus range.

    • Jessica E. Tierney
    • , Jiang Zhu
    •  & Christopher J. Poulsen
  • Article |

    Observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 is reconciled with estimates based on the contributing processes, revealing budget closure within uncertainties and showing ice-mass loss from glaciers as a dominant contributor.

    • Thomas Frederikse
    • , Felix Landerer
    •  & Yun-Hao Wu
  • Article |

    Ocean heatwaves displace surface isotherms by tens to thousands of kilometres—comparable to shifts associated with long-term warming trends—potentially driving rapid redistributions of marine species.

    • Michael G. Jacox
    • , Michael A. Alexander
    •  & James D. Scott
  • Article |

    Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.

    • D. M. Smith
    • , A. A. Scaife
    •  & L. Zhang
  • Article |

    A detailed assessment of the techno-economic potential of enhanced rock weathering on croplands identifies national CO2 removal potentials, costs and engineering challenges if it were to be scaled up to help meet ambitious global CO2 removal targets.

    • David J. Beerling
    • , Euripides P. Kantzas
    •  & Steven A. Banwart
  • Article |

    Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.

    • Jens Terhaar
    • , Lester Kwiatkowski
    •  & Laurent Bopp
  • Article |

    Coral records indicate that the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole over the last millennium is strongly coupled to variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and that recent extremes are unusual but not unprecedented.

    • Nerilie J. Abram
    • , Nicky M. Wright
    •  & David Heslop
  • Article |

    Isotopic evidence from ice cores indicates that preindustrial-era geological methane emissions were lower than previously thought, suggesting that present-day emissions of methane from fossil fuels are underestimated.

    • Benjamin Hmiel
    • , V. V. Petrenko
    •  & E. Dlugokencky
  • Article |

    An analysis based on Landsat imagery shows that the extent of river ice has declined extensively over past decades and that this trend will continue under future global warming.

    • Xiao Yang
    • , Tamlin M. Pavelsky
    •  & George H. Allen
  • Article |

    Three techniques for estimating mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet produce comparable results for the period 1992–2018 that approach the trajectory of the highest rates of sea-level rise projected by the IPCC.

    • Andrew Shepherd
    • , Erik Ivins
    •  & Jan Wuite