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A survey of climate change simulations from different models indicates widespread changes in surface temperature persistence under global warming that may be attributable to a broad range of physical processes.
Preliminary modelling of airborne microplastics suggests that they may be exerting a minor cooling influence on the present-day atmosphere, and continued production could have increasing effects on the climate system in future.
The amount of carbon dioxide released by the Australian wildfires of 2019–2020 is uncertain, but is estimated here using satellite observations of carbon monoxide to be more than twice the amount suggested by fire inventories.
To enable net-negative CO2 emissions, the repayment of previously accrued carbon debt by establishing the responsibility for the net removal of CO2 by carbon-emitting parties through carbon removal obligations is necessary.
A revised date for the Laacher See eruption using measurements of subfossil trees shifts the chronology of European varved lakes relative to the Greenland ice core record, synchronizing the onset of the Younger Dryas across the North Atlantic–European sector.
Using a global mass-balance approach to calculate evapotranspiration, it is shown that global land evapotranspiration increased by 10% between 2003 and 2019, driven mainly by warming land temperatures.
Efficient statistical emulation of melting land ice under various climate scenarios to 2100 indicates a contribution from melting land ice to sea level increase of at least 13 centimetres sea level equivalent.
Analysis of satellite stereo imagery uncovers two decades of mass change for all of Earth’s glaciers, revealing accelerated glacier shrinkage and regionally contrasting changes consistent with decadal climate variability.
Ongoing global warming is likely to cause tipping point thresholds to be passed, but an abrupt system change can still be avoided if the warming is reversed quickly relative to the timescale of the tipping element.
Accounting for equity influences the social cost of methane more than climate model uncertainty does and produces results that differ by over an order of magnitude between low- and high-income regions.
This Review proposes an interdisciplinary framework for researching climate–society interactions that focuses on the mechanisms through which climate change has influenced societies, and the uncertainties of discerning this influence across different spatiotemporal scales.
A synthesis of elevated carbon dioxide experiments reveals that when plant biomass is strongly stimulated by elevated carbon dioxide levels, soil carbon storage declines, and where biomass is weakly stimulated, soil carbon accumulates.
Modelling and remote sensing show that by the end of the twenty-first century, lake heatwaves will be several degrees Celsius warmer and some will be months longer, with potentially major adverse consequences for lake ecosystems.
North Atlantic landfalling hurricanes are weakening more slowly than in the past because warming oceans are increasing the moisture carried by the storm until it hits land, and this storm moisture acts as an ongoing heat source post-landfall.
The response of tropical precipitation to variation in sea surface temperature is stronger than in most climate models, with cool and warm ocean regions linked by strong shallow atmospheric circulations.
Multicriteria optimization identifies global priority areas for ecosystem restoration and estimates their benefits for biodiversity and climate, providing cost–benefit analyses that highlight the importance of optimizing spatial planning and incorporating several biomes in restoration strategies.
Modelling shows that the Antarctic Ice Sheet exhibits multiple temperature thresholds beyond which ice loss would become irreversible, and once melted, the ice sheet can regain its previous mass only if the climate cools well below pre-industrial temperatures.
A compilation of proxy data are used with an isotope-enabled climate model ensemble to constrain cooling during the Last Glacial Maximum, producing estimates of equilibrium climate sensitivity that agree well with the current consensus range.
Observed global-mean sea-level rise since 1900 is reconciled with estimates based on the contributing processes, revealing budget closure within uncertainties and showing ice-mass loss from glaciers as a dominant contributor.
A linear relationship between the storage of heat and carbon in global oceans in response to anthropogenic emissions is used to reconstruct the effect of circulation changes on past and future ocean warming patterns.
Current models are too noisy to predict climate usefully on decadal timescales, but two-stage post-processing of model outputs greatly improves predictions of decadal variations in North Atlantic winter climate.
A detailed assessment of the techno-economic potential of enhanced rock weathering on croplands identifies national CO2 removal potentials, costs and engineering challenges if it were to be scaled up to help meet ambitious global CO2 removal targets.
Sea surface density observations in the Arctic Ocean reveal a relationship between the present-day surface water density and the anthropogenic carbon inventory and coincident acidification, suggesting that recent acidification projections are underestimates.
Measurements in the CLOUD chamber at CERN show that the rapid condensation of ammonia and nitric acid vapours could be important for the formation and survival of new particles in wintertime urban conditions, contributing to urban smog.
Multi-proxy core data and model simulations support the presence of temperate rainforests near the South Pole during mid-Cretaceous warmth, indicating very high CO2 levels and the absence of Antarctic ice.
The recovery of stratospheric ozone in the Southern Hemisphere in the wake of the Montreal Protocol is driving a pause in atmospheric circulation trends that warrants closer scrutiny across the Earth system.
Coral records indicate that the variability of the Indian Ocean Dipole over the last millennium is strongly coupled to variability in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and that recent extremes are unusual but not unprecedented.
Unlike Amazonian forests, African forests have maintained their carbon sink until recently but by 2030 the African carbon sink will have shrunk by 14 per cent and the Amazonian sink will reach almost zero.
Isotopic evidence from ice cores indicates that preindustrial-era geological methane emissions were lower than previously thought, suggesting that present-day emissions of methane from fossil fuels are underestimated.
A reduction in the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation initiated during the penultimate deglaciation led to excess polar ice losses, contributing to higher sea levels during the last interglacial period.
Three techniques for estimating mass losses from the Greenland Ice Sheet produce comparable results for the period 1992–2018 that approach the trajectory of the highest rates of sea-level rise projected by the IPCC.