Research articles

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  • The authors incorporate intraspecific variation into a dynamic range model to predict the consequences of twenty-first century warming on six European alpine plants. As well as overall range loss, their model predicts a decrease in the frequency of warm-adapted haplotypes in five out of six species.

    • Johannes Wessely
    • Andreas Gattringer
    • Stefan Dullinger
    Article Open Access
  • Land degradation in drylands impacts livelihoods and productivity and is affected by biocrusts that stabilize the soil. Long-term experiments show that biocrust recovery from disturbance is faster than expected, but stopped under warming, with warming alone causing loss of biocrust groups and soil stability.

    • M. L. Phillips
    • B. E. McNellis
    • S. C. Reed
  • Antarctic sea ice extent is thought to be stable or increasing, in contrast to Arctic declines. Estimates of seasonal Antarctic sea ice from reconstructions show that increases are confined to the satellite era, post-1979, with substantial decreases in the early and mid-twentieth century.

    • Ryan L. Fogt
    • Amanda M. Sleinkofer
    • Mark S. Handcock
  • The authors develop a high-resolution model of coral larval dispersal for the southern Great Barrier Reef. They show that 2 °C of warming decreases larval dispersal distance and connectivity of reefs, hampering post-disturbance recovery and the potential spread of warm-adapted genes.

    • Joana Figueiredo
    • Christopher J. Thomas
    • Emmanuel Hanert
  • The authors conduct a meta-analysis to reveal mismatches in above- and belowground plant phenological responses to warming that differ by plant type (herbaceous versus woody). The work highlights a need for further research and consideration of under-represented belowground phenological changes.

    • Huiying Liu
    • Hao Wang
    • Madhav P. Thakur
  • In idealized model experiments where CO2 increases four-fold before returning to its original level, temperature and precipitation show almost linear responses to CO2 forcing. In contrast, the response of the Intertropical Convergence Zone lags behind CO2 changes, associated with delayed energy exchanges.

    • Jong-Seong Kug
    • Ji-Hoon Oh
    • Jongsoo Shin
  • The context and motivation around adaptation are influenced by local culture and institutions. In the United States, China, Indonesia and the Netherlands, some factors (such as perceived costs) have similar influences on household adaptation to flooding, but others (such as flood experience) differ between countries.

    • Brayton Noll
    • Tatiana Filatova
    • Alessandro Taberna
  • The remoteness and paucity of historic observations of the Southern Ocean limit understanding of the effects of climate change on circulation. Using observations, CMIP6 and eddy-resolving models, this Article shows that acceleration of its zonal flow emerged in recent decades as a result of uneven ocean warming.

    • Jia-Rui Shi
    • Lynne D. Talley
    • Wei Liu
  • Current emissions scenarios include pathways that overshoot the temperature goals set out in the Paris Agreement and rely on future net negative emissions. Limiting overshoot would require near-term investment but would result in longer-term economic benefit.

    • Keywan Riahi
    • Christoph Bertram
    • Behnam Zakeri
  • Climate policy analyses often ignore the possibility of progressive redistribution of carbon tax revenues and assume that mitigation cost will burden the poor in the short term. Integrated Assessment Model (IAM) estimation suggests such redistribution could reduce inequality, alleviate poverty and increase well-being globally.

    • Mark Budolfson
    • Francis Dennig
    • Stéphane Zuber
  • The authors project future rates of temporal and spatial displacement of climate and land-use in protected areas (PAs), and show that more than one-quarter of the world’s PAs are highly threatened, with particular risk to PAs across tropical moist and grassland biomes.

    • Ernest F. Asamoah
    • Linda J. Beaumont
    • Joseph M. Maina
  • Smallholder farmers will be impacted substantially by climate change and need to adapt. Agent-based modelling shows that interventions, particularly cash transfer paired with risk transfer mechanisms, lead to increased migration and uptake of cash crops, with higher income and lower inequality.

    • Nicolas Choquette-Levy
    • Matthias Wildemeersch
    • Simon A. Levin
  • Soybean and maize yields in the Amazon-Cerrado region of Brazil are dependent on water from rain. Warming and drying will make the climate less suitable for agricultural production; changes have already moved 28% of croplands out of their optimum climate space.

    • Ludmila Rattis
    • Paulo M. Brando
    • Michael T. Coe