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VOLCANOLOGY

Long-term eruption forecasting

Unrest episodes observed in basaltic systems indicate magma influx rates may be key to generating long-term eruption forecasts. The findings predict that, if a critical flow rate is surpassed, a volcano will erupt within a year.

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Fig. 1: The rate of magma inflow determines the eruptive fate of volcanic unrest.

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Correspondence to Tushar Mittal.

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Mittal, T. Long-term eruption forecasting. Nat. Geosci. 15, 516–517 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-022-00973-8

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