Reducing CO2 emissions from fossil fuel- and biomass-fired power plants often also reduces air pollution, benefitting both climate and public health. Here, we examine the relationship of climate and health benefits by modelling individual electricity-generating units worldwide across a range of climate–energy policy scenarios. We estimate that ~92% of deaths related to power plant emissions during 2010–2018 occurred in low-income or emerging economies such as China, India and countries in Southeast Asia, and show that such deaths are quite sensitive to future climate–energy trajectories. Yet, minimizing future deaths will also require strategic retirements of super-polluting power plants and deployment of pollution control technologies. These findings underscore the importance of considering public health in designing and implementing climate–energy policies: improved air quality and avoided air pollution deaths are not an automatic and fixed co-benefit of climate mitigation.
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The database GPED that supports the base-year findings of this study is available at http://www.meicmodel.org/dataset-gped.html. The base mortality incidences data during 2010–2018 are available at http://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-results-tool. The future base mortality incidences database is available at http://www.ifs.du.edu/ifs/frm_MainMenu.aspx. The future demographic structure database is available at https://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at/SspDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=30. Emission data for other sectors are available at https://edgar.jrc.ec.europa.eu/emissions_data_and_maps. Emissions data of the power plants in scenarios produced that support the findings of this study are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5637476 (ref. 74).
The code of the GEOS-Chem model to simulate the global PM2.5 concentrations is available at https://geos-chem.seas.harvard.edu/.
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This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 41921005 and 41625020) and the Energy Foundation (G-2009-32416). D.T. was supported by a gift to Carnegie Institution for Science from Gates Ventures LLC. C.H. and S.J.D. were supported by the US National Science Foundation (Innovations at the Nexus of Food, Energy and Water Systems grant no. EAR 1639318).
The authors declare no competing interests.
Peer review information Nature Climate Change thanks Jan Steckel and the other, anonymous, reviewer(s) for their contribution to the peer review of this work.
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The figure shows the framework of unit-level power emission projection model developed for this study.
The figure shows the regional average lifetimes of power plants for each retirement strategy.
Extended Data Fig. 3 Identified capacity and death contributions of 2010-coal super-polluting units.
The figure shows capacity and death contributions of 2010-coal super-polluting units in 2010 and 2018 across nine regions.
The figure shows the relationship between annual average CO2 reduction rate and PM2.5-related years of life lost under the scenario assemble in (a) 2030 and (b) 2050, spanning four levels of climate ambition (RCP6.0, RCP4.5, RCP2.6, and RCP1.9) and three different retirement strategies (historical, performance-based, and early retirement) and two stringencies of pollution controls (that is strong and weak). The black circles show the mean annual change in CO2 emissions during 2010–2015 (and 2010-level PM2.5-related years of life lost), and 2010–2018 (and 2018-level PM2.5-related years of life lost), respectively.
Extended Data Fig. 5 Future emission reductions during 2010–2050 under various combined mitigation options.
The period during 2010–2018 show the real emission differences, equalling 0. The RCP6.0 with performance-based retirement and weak pollution control scenario was set as the base scenario for comparison, Figs. a1-a4 show the emission reductions among different ambitious climate–energy scenarios (that is RCP4.5, RCP2.6, and RCP1.9); Figs. b1-b4 show the emission changes among different retirement strategies (that is historical and early retirements) covering RCP6.0 and RCP1.9; Figs. c1-c4 show the emission reductions from weak to strong pollution controls covering RCP6.0 and RCP1.9.
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Source Data for Extended Data Fig. 2.
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Tong, D., Geng, G., Zhang, Q. et al. Health co-benefits of climate change mitigation depend on strategic power plant retirements and pollution controls. Nat. Clim. Chang. 11, 1077–1083 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01216-1